Fatal Terrain Read online

Sun interjected angrily. "You cannot destroy any air bases

  with weapons you do not have. Now, I have told you that

  there are no missiles at Longtian, and I have suggested using

  bombers or attack planes to cover Taoyuan and Hsinchu until

  the missiles are operational again. Why do you continue to

  brief outdated infon-nation?"

  "I ... because, Comrade Admiral, the plan calls for Long-

  tian to attack and destroy those two Nationalist bases," Ai

  said. "It is all in the plan, sir. . . . "

  "Yes, I know, but the plan is wrong," Sun said. This caused

  a gasp from Ai and from most of the officers attending the

  briefing-and an absolutely explosive grimace from Qian. "it

  is wrong because ... Damn you, Colonel, you can see it is

  wrong. Change it. We could be called upon at any moment to

  execute this attack plan, and I want to be sure it is perfect."

  "It is not wise to change the war plans," General Qian said.

  "Yes, yes, some missiles are not in place right now, but they

  will be soon. If we are ordered to execute our war plans, we

  can move additional forces eastward to cover those two Na-

  'tionalist air bases. Does that alleviate your concern, Comrade

  Admiral?"

  "Comrade General, the purpose of this planning committee

  is to continually modify the existing war plans to reflect cur-

  rent circumstances and conditions," Sun Ji Guorning said.

  "This is done so we do not have to wait until the moment we

  execute the war order to learn that we do not have the forces

  in place to accomplish the mission. When you were notified

  that Longtian was flooded and missiles were being relocated,

  22 DALE BROWN

  you should have immediately moved additional forces to cover

  those targets."

  "You mean, fly hundreds of aircraft and thousands of troops

  all over China just for a few days until some mud is swept

  away?" General Qian asked. "Do you realize how much that

  would cost? And what of other war plans for which those

  aircraft and personnel are committed? That means coordinating

  with dozens of other headquarters all over China."

  "But, sir, that is the purpose of this planning group-to

  respond immediately to changes that might affect this war

  plan," Sun argued. "If it becomes necessary to move men and

  equipment to a new location, then so be it. We should--

  "We should look at the solution in a different way, a way

  that will not be as complicated or as costly," Qian interjected,

  obviously impatient to get this briefing over with. "Perhaps in

  the future we can brief possible replacement units that could

  be utilized to fill in, in situations such as have occurred in

  Longtian. We do not actually move any forces, but we earmark

  them for possible action in case the war plan is activated. How

  does that sound to you, Comrade Sun?"

  Sun opened his mouth to respond, but thought better of it.

  It was a bad idea. The war plan for the invasion of Taiwan

  was supposed to be a rapid reaction plan-the invasion was

  supposed to begin within twenty-four hours of the execution

  order. The world, especially Taiwan and its de facto ally, the

  United States of America, would immediately detect any mas-

  sive troop or equipment movements; the element of surprise

  would be lost, and China no doubt would be forced to stand

  down its forces. If there were huge gaps in the reaction time

  of forces key to the plan-especially the Dong Feng-15 missile

  bombardment units, which were supposed to destroy key air

  defense and coastal defense sites in western Taiwan-the en-

  tire invasion plan was in jeopardy.

  But now was not the time to argue this point. "Very well,

  Comrade General," Sun acquiesced. "As long as the chief of

  staff is aware of the degradation, and immediately advised as

  to the steps being taken to correct the deficiency, a briefing

  note such as you suggest could be acceptable. But it is cer-

  tainly not acceptable to brief that a certain element in the attack

  plan is mission-capable if it is in fact not so. The war plans

  are not carved in stone-they must be continually modified or

  FATAL TERRAIN 23

  they are useless. Please do not commit that error again, Com-

  rade Colonel."

  "Yes, Comrade Admiral," Colonel Ai responded, nodding

  contritely. Ai took a moment to take a sip of water, collect his

  thoughts, and find his place again-and immediately pro-

  ceeded to give his briefing exactly as prepared, effors and all.

  There were at least two more instances that Sun knew of where

  attack units were not in place-in one case, an attack unit that

  Ai briefed was key to the destruction of a radar site on the

  Pescadores Islands in the Formosa Strait did not even exist any

  longer! The planning committee had done virtually nothing to

  the original Central Military Commission war plans drafted

  several years earlier.

  "Another question, Comrade Colonel," Sun interjected,

  swallowing his exasperation. "You seem quite content to sail

  the carrier Mao and her escorts right up to Kaohsiung, sup-

  ported by air forces from Pingtan and naval air units from

  Quanzhou. But that means our J-6s will be up against the

  Nationalists' F-16s from T'ainan......

  "We enjoy a six to one superiority in fighters, Comrade

  Admiral," Ai responded. "Also, the DF-15 bombardment is

  guaranteed to destroy all of the runways that might possibly

  be used by the F-16s. Even if we do not destroy many F-16s

  on the ground, they will be trapped either aloft running out of

  fuel and weapons, or on the ground unable to launch."

  "Your estimates of the amount of damage our rockets might

  do to the Nationalists' bases is arguable, since they have a

  great quantity of ballistic missile defense systems and much

  of their warfighting infrastructure is belowground, where our

  rockets would have little effect," Sun said. "But even if our

  rocket attack is twice as effective as you say, our numerical

  fighter aircraft superiority can be completely erased if our air

  attack is at night."

  "Sir ... ?"

  "Our J-5 and J-6 fighters and most of our J-7 fighters are

  not capable of night operational see that seventy-five percent

  of the air cover for the carrier is composed of J-6s," Sun

  explained. "Only about ten percent are J-7s and J-8s. Where

  are the Sukhoi-27s? Those are our most capable fighters."

  "The Su-27s are based at Haikou Airfield, on Hainan Dao,

  Comrade Admiral," Ai replied.

  "I know where they are based, comrade-my question is,

  24 DALE BROWN

  why are they not part of this offensive?" Sun asked. "Our

  fifty best fighters against their fifty best fighters-it would be

  an excellent battle, one that we could very well win. Such a

  battle could be decisive." Qian interjected,

  -There you go again, comrade," General g a lung. "The

  with a chuckle that sounded as if he were losin the

  Sukhoi-27s have been deployed to Hainan Island to Patrol

  Nansh
a Dao. Their base facilities are specially made just for

  them. Do you now suggest we spend billions of yuan more to

  move them north to Pingtan or Fuzhou?"

  "For this offensive-of course we should, Sir," Sun replied.

  quipment and best pilots to blunt the

  "We need our best e logical advantage, and the SukhOi-27s

  rebel,s superior techno e F-16 Fighting

  are just as capable and perhaps superior to th

  Falcon. The teaming of J-8s with Su-27s is easily superior to

  a matchup between Taiwan's F-16s and F-5 Freedom Fighters.

  The key, obviously, is the sukhoi-27s."

  "We also have the advantage Of superior command and con-

  Ilyushin-76 radar

  trol", Ai intedected, "namely, the

  surveillance planes. Two of our 11-76s operating in the region

  during the conflict greatly increase the flexibility of the J-7S

  and J-6s."

  _Our radar plane crews are just now being certified for

  combat duties," Sun responded. -I feel it is not wise to trust

  them to carry the air battle for us, especially if we are top-

  heavy with fighters that require constant airborne intercept and

  even weapon-control information right down to 'knife-

  fighting' range. That could overload the radar operators and

  cause confusion."

  "Every commander wants the best, especially the young

  ones like yourself," Qian argued , his voice very grandfatherly,

  almost jovial. "'Me J-6s and J-7 fighters, along with the II-

  yushin-76 radar planes, will perform well beyond all expec-

  tations."

  "But the Su-27s will give us an edge-"

  -The Sukhoi-27s were based on Hainan Dao to protect our

  interests in the south China Sea, in case of attack by Vietnam-

  ese or Philippine forces on our holdings in the Spratly Is-

  lands - Qian said. He raised a suspicious eyebrow and asked

  Sun, , -you are not suggesting we abandon our rights to the

  South China Sea, Comrade Admiral?"

  -Of ... course not, Sir," Sun Ji Guorning replied,

  FATAL TE R RAI N 25

  stunned by the question. "Sir, I am not trying to discredit the

  war plan or impose my own views over that of the Party or

  the Central Military Commission. My intention is to suggest

  improvements on the plan to ensure a safe and successful out-

  come. The Formosa invasion-"

  "Is well planned and ready for execution, without the added

  complication of the Sukhoi-27 fighters," Qian said confi-

  dently. "They can always be brought north in case they are

  needed, but with a six-to-one numerical advantage in fighters

  now, along with the carrier Mao's fleet of Sukhoi-33 fighters,

  we feel the carrier is well-protected and we can destroy any

  opposition from Kaohsiung. A little danger is to be expected,

  my young friend-you cannot summon every rifle or every jet

  ou wish. The plan has been fon-nulated to concentrate nec-

  essary strength on defeating the rebels without sacrificing se-

  curity or strategic balance in other areas of our vast nation.

  Please continue, comrade. . . ."

  "Perhaps you do not understand, Comrade General," Sun

  said. "The National Assembly of the rebel Nationalist govern-

  ment on Taiwan has just voted to amend their constitution to

  declare themselves independent and sovereign from the main-

  land."

  Colonel Lieutenant Ai Peijian appeared to be a bit confused.

  Since no one else was speaking, he said, "Permit me to speak,

  Sir, but why is this. such shocking news? The rebels have been

  thinking they can be independent from us for a long time."

  "But now they've declared it to the world!" Sun shouted.

  "They have put it in their constitution! They have dared to

  declare that there are two Chinas, separate and equal! Equal!

  To us? How dare they! How dare they do such a thing!"

  "It is meaningless, Sir," Colonel Ai said, still unsure as to

  why Sun was so angry. "The world knows it is not true. It is

  like a bug declaring it is equal to the elephant. The world

  knows that eventually the rebel government will be over-

  thrown and the province of Taiwan will return to the Peo-

  ple's-' I

  "The world knows, does it? The world knows?" Sun in-

  terrupted, suddenly stopping his furious pacing. "You did not

  hear the rest of the news, then, Comrade Colonel: It is ex-

  pected that the governments of the United States, Great Brit-

  ain, France, Germany, Russia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and

  many others will formally recognize the new Republic of

  26 DALE BROWN

  China within the coming days. Intelligence reports that a new

  American embassy will open in Taipei within the week. It is

  also estimated that the United States will petition for perma-

  nent membership for the Nationalists in the United Nations. It

  will be a simple majority vote--our country cannot block

  membership with a veto."

  "No ... it cannot be," General Qian muttered. He got to

  his feet, his hands still shaking. "This demands an immediate

  response. This cannot be!"

  "We shall establish contact with the general staff irnmedi-

  ately," Sun said. "Comrade General, you must convene your

  operations staff and be prepared to execute the war orders

  immediately."

  "Execute ... the ... war ... orders!" Colonel Ai sputtered.

  "You mean, we are at war with the Nationalists?"

  "You thought all this was a joke, Colonel?" Sun shouted

  angrily. "You thought none of this could really happen, that

  you would be somewhere else, doing something else? I am

  going to recommend that this plan be put into operation im-

  mediately! Within forty-eight hours, Colonel,- I expect to be

  standing on the remains of the rebels' capital, walking over

  the bodies of the rebels' so-called 'sovereign' legislature.

  "But first, I must figure out a way to fix your incompetence

  in amending the war plans so our attack will be successful,"

  Sun Ji Guoming thundered. "What do you think of the plan

  now, Colonel? What if I put you on the first landing craft that

  rolls across the beachhead at Kaohsiung? Would you brief the

  plan the same, knowing that it was your ass that would be the

  first to face the remnants of the Nationalist forces that were

  supposed to be destroyed? Tell me, Colonel!" He suddenly

  swung on the aged general. "Tell me, General! How is the

  plan shaping up now? Perhaps I should nominate you to lead

  the invasion force!"

  "Have a care, Comrade Admiral," Qian said, but in a pan-

  icked, squeaky voice. "You are on the verge of insubordina-

  tion."

  "And what about the Americans, Colonel?" Sun Ji Guom-

  ing said, his voice rising in absolute frustration. "Your time

  line extends out to thirty days-but it will not take the Amer-

  icans more than one day to respond. Their fighters from Oki-

  nawa have the range to engage our fighters in the northern

  sector; their fighters with their air refueling can protect their

  FATAL TER RA I N 27

  sub hunters and anti-ship attack planes. And that is before
one

  of their carriers arrives to begin a counteroffensive. What

  forces do you propose to use when that begins?"

  "The Americans would not risk a carrier during the initial

  thrust against the rebels," Ai Peijian argued. "The Military

  Intelligence Department reports that if the Americans do de-

  cide to engage, it will be well after the initial thrust."

  "I am referring to the land-based forces on Okinawa, com-

  rade," Sun said. "American navy, marines, air forces-it

  seems the Americans have as many planes on Okinawa as

  Taiwan has in their entire fleet! If they commit those forces,

  all our forces arrayed against the northern half of Taiwan could

  be in jeopardy. If they get control of the skies and bring in

  their P-3 sub-chasers, all of our submarine fleet in the Formosa

  Strait and East China Sea could be in jeopardy. What will you

  do if-?"

  "Comrade Admiral," General Qian intedected wearily,

  you are raving. Be silent."

  "Why not just destroy Okinawa, Comrade Colonel?" Sun

  Ji, Guorning said, ignoring the general's admonition. "That

  would eliminate one of the biggest threats to our forces com-

  mitted to the Taiwan battle. Destroy Okinawa, destroy Kunsan,

  South Korea, and we push the Americans back to the 135th

  meridian, out of range of their medium attack planes. If the

  Japanese refuse to allow American forces to stage attacks

  against us from their bases, we can then push the Americans

  back to Guam. Destroy Guarn-one DF-5 long-range ballistic

  missile fired from Changsha, or one sea-launched ballistic mis-

  sile fired from the Xia, our nuclear submarine-and we push

  the Americans back to the other side of the International Date

  Line. They would not even be fighting on the same day as us!

  We could then-"

  "You ... you are talking about using nuclear weapons, Ad-

  miral?" General Qian gasped. "You know that the Chinese

  Communist Party has officially stated that the People's Lib-

  eration Army will not use nuclear weapons first in any con-

  flict?"

  "Using nuclear weapons would be much better than relying

  on false and misleading war plans such as these to retake what