Fatal Terrain Read online

  the air lock leading to the crew cabin. Ignoring the biting cold,

  he stripped off his gloves and snowsuit as the air lock pres-

  surized, then removed his oxygen mask and helmet, opened

  the forward air lock door, and entered the launch-control com-

  partment. "Status!" he called out excitedly.

  "M-9 is running hot and true," the launch officer replied.

  "Altitude eighty thousand feet, twenty-nine miles downrange.

  Datalink active." The officer handed Sun a messageform.

  "This came in for you while you were aft, sir. Message from

  headquarters. "

  Sun took the messageform but did not bother to look at it-

  FATAL TER RAI N 15

  he was too excited about the launch. He watched in childlike

  fascination as the tracking numbers changed, moving his finger

  along a chart following its position as the missile zoomed

  northeastward. It was running perfectly.

  Minutes later, the M-9 was approaching its target-Tung

  Ying Dao, what the rebel Nationalist government on the Chi-

  nese island province of Formosa called Tungsha Tao. Tung

  Ying Dao was a large archipelago of islands and reefs in the

  South China Sea, claimed by Taiwan, about midway between

  the southern tip of Formosa and Hainan Island, almost two

  hundred miles east-southeast of Hong Kong. The rebel Tai-

  wanese government had erected several military sites on the

  largest island, Pratas Island, including U.-made Hawk and

  Taiwanese-made Tien-Kung antiaircraft and Hsiung Feng anti-

  ship missile sites. The defenses on the island were a great

  threat to Chinese ships passing between the mainland and the

  South China Sea, especially ships bound for the Spratly is-

  lands, the archipelago of islands, reefs, and atolls claimed by

  many western Asian nations.

  "M-9 reaching apogee," the technicians reported. "Altitude

  one hundred fifteen thousand feet, seventy-one miles down-

  range-

  Admiral Sun touched the sensor control, and in a few sec-

  onds several white dots appeared on a dark black and green

  background. This was an infrared image of the scene below

  from the nose cone of the M-9 missile, beamed to the launch

  aircraft via radio datalink. Sun magnified the image to maxi-

  mum and could just barely make out the outline of Pratas

  Island. Several other large, hot targets, far more intense on the

  heat-sensitive sensor than the island, showed as well-these

  were target barges with large diesel heaters set up on them,

  arrayed around Pratas Island to act as targets for the M-9 mis-

  sile.

  ' But Sun ignored the target barges. Instead, he locked the

  targeting bug of the M-9 missile on the northwest section of

  Pratas Island, where he knew the missile installations were

  located. The senior technician noted this at once: "Excuse me,

  Comrade Admiral, but you have locked the missile on the

  landmass. .. .,,

  "Yes, I know," Sun replied with a sly smile. "Continue

  the test. I I

  "Our telemetry systems won't record the impact if it strays

  16 DALE BROWN

  more than twenty miles off course," the tech reminded him.

  "How long will we have datalink Contact before impact?"

  "It should hold lock all the way to impact," the tech re-

  plied, "although terrain or cultural obstructions may block the

  signal within approximately eight seconds to impact."

  "How far will the missile drift off course in eight seconds?"

  -If it stays locked on, it will not drift off course," the tech

  replied. "If it breaks lock when we lose the datalink ... it will

  miss perhaps by not more than a few dozen meters."

  "Then I think we will get all the telemetry we need," Sun

  said. "Continue the test."

  The closer the M-9 got to its target, the more detail they

  could see. Through occasional spats of static and one short

  nine-second datalink break as the warhead separated from the

  booster section, Sun could start to make out large buildings,

  then piers and wharves, then finally individual buildings.

  Through long hours of study, Sun knew exactly what he was

  looking at, and as soon as the system allowed him to do so,

  he locked the warhead on the main barracks building, a two-

  story wooden frame structure just a few hundred meters from

  the northwestern shoreline of Pratas Island. Sun knew that ap-

  proximately a thousand rebel Nationalist soldiers were sta-

  tioned on Pratas Island, manning and servicing the antiair and

  -ship sites-and he knew that about one hundred Taiwanese

  soldiers would be asleep right now in those barracks.

  "Twenty seconds to impact," the tech reported. "Uh ...

  sir, should we lock on one of the target barges now?"

  "Captain, if you dare question my actions ever again, you

  will be commanding a garbage detail in Inner Mongolia prov-

  ince by tomorrow night," Sun Ji Guorning said in a low voice.

  "As far as you are aware, I locked the missile warhead's tar-

  geting sensor on the primary target barge, and you saw it lock

  on perfectly as expected. Is that clear, Captain?"

  "Yes, sir," the technician responded. He watched in horror

  as the warhead careened down out of the sky, faster and faster,

  never wavering-it had held lock all the way until it passed

  below datalink coverage. The last thing they saw on the TV

  monitor was the broad, flat roofline of the barracks building.

  Even if the warhead started to drift, which it didn't, the war-

  head would not have missed that building full of sleeping sol-

  diers. The warhead had no explosive charge on board, only

  concrete ballast to simulate a 300-pound high-explosive war-

  FATAL TE R RAI N 17

  head, but such a large object smashing home at over 900 miles

  an hour was going to do major damage even without a major

  explosion. The devastation would be catastrophic-and the

  rebel Nationalists would never know what hit them.

  "Excellent test, comrades, excellent," Admiral Sun an-

  nounced. "Secure all stations." He remembered the urgent

  message from Beijing just then, and fished the messageform

  out of his flight suit pocket and read as he continued, "Section

  leaders, I expect full reports on any difficulties to me before

  we land. Pilot, let us head back to base and--

  He stopped dumbfounded, as he read. No, no, this was ini-

  possible!

  "Cancel that last order, pilot," Sun shouted. "All available

  speed to Juidongshan naval base. What is our time en route?"

  "Stand by, sir," the pilot responded. Sun was in a daze as

  the pilot copilot, and flight engineer pulled out charts and

  started computing the new flight planning information. The

  three officers looked at each other nervously; then the pilot

  turned to the navy admiral lower class and said, "Sir, the naval

  base at Juidongshan does not have a runway long enough to

  accommodate this aircraft. The closest base that can safely

  accommodate us is Shantou, ETE, five-zero minutes. We can

  have a helicopter standing by to take you to Juidongshan,
>
  ETE--

  "Pilot, I did not ask you to fly to Shantou," Sun said an-

  grily. "Are the runways and taxiways at Juidongshan stressed

  to take this aircraft?"

  The copilot looked up the information in the airman's flight

  supplement manual id replied, "Yes, sir, the runways can

  an

  handle us at minimum gross weight. The taxiways and ramp

  areas are limited to thirty thousand pounds, so-"

  "That is all I need," Sun said. "I do not need you to park

  this plane-I only require that you drop me off. You can dump

  fuel as you begin your approach to get down to emergency-

  landing fuel weight."

  "But, sir, the runway is made for only liaison aircraft and

  helicopters," the flight engineer said. "It is only five thousand

  feet long! Even with only minimum fuel to reach Shantou, our

  safe takeoff roll will exceed the runway available by-"

  "Lieutenant, I do not care if this plane becomes a permanent

  fixture at Juidongshan-I want to be on the ground at Jui-

  dongshan in less than a hour. If I am not in a car and on my

  18 DALE BROWN

  way to headquarters in that time, the next destination you will

  be landing at will be a security ice cave in Tibet. Now, go!"

  PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARmy NAVY EASTERN FLEET

  (TAIWAN OPERATIONS) HEADQUARTERS,

  JUIDONGSHAN NAVAL BASE, FUJIAN PROVINCE,

  PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

  SUNDAY, 18 MAY 1997, 2316 HOURS LOCAL

  (17 MAY, 1416 HOURS ET)

  "Greetings to you, Comrade Admiral Sun Ji Guoming," Gen-

  eral Major Qian Shugeng, the elderly deputy commander for

  plans of the Military Command Headquarters Targeting Tai-

  wain, said in a low, gravelly voice. "It is a pleasure to present

  our operational plans to you on behalf of the general staff. I

  will now turn the briefing over to my young deputy, Colonel

  Lieutenant Ai Peijian. Colonel Peijian has been most helpful

  in preparing this briefing for you. He is one of our hardest

  workers and a true and loyal son of the Party."

  The nearly eighty-year-old general officer waved a withered

  hand to tonight's briefer, Colonel Lieutenant Ai Peijian-

  " young" in his case meant about age fifty-five-who moved

  to his feet and bowed respectfully. "Welcome, comrade, to

  our status briefing regarding our standing war plans for the

  glorious pacification and reunification with the rebel Nation-

  alist Chinese on the island of Taiwan. Before I begin in detail,

  I am happy to report that our plans are in perfect order and

  await only the command from our Paramount Leader to exe-

  cute the war plan. In less than one week, we can destroy the

  Nationalists' defenses, capture the Nationalist president and his

  key advisors and Kuomintang leadership, and start the process

  of reunification under the Communist Party of China."

  I 'That will be for me and Comrade General Chin to decide,

  Colonel," Sun said, impatiently waving a hand for the briefing

  to begin.

  Just two minutes into the briefing, Sun knew that not much

  had been changed-this was the same briefing he had been

  given every two weeks for the past year now. This military

  committee-the Operations and Plans Committee, part of the

  FATAL TERRA I N 19

  Military Command Headquarters Targeting Taiwan, or

  MCHTT, based here in Juidongshan-was in charge of con-

  tinually revising the war plans drawn up by the Central Mili-

  tary Commission, China's main military command body, for

  the initial attack, invasion, occupation, and subjugation of the

  rebel Chinese Nationalist government on the island of For-

  mosa. Every two weeks, the MCHT`T was required to brief the

  Central Military Commission or its designated representative-

  that had been Admiral Sun Ji Guoming for quite some time

  now-on any changes to the war plan made because of force

  or command changes on either side.

  But it was a farce, typical of the huge, bloated People's

  Liberation Army bureaucracy, Sun thought. No member of the

  lowly MCHTT would dare make any substantive changes in

  the war plans drawn up by the Central Military Commission-

  that would be an act tantamount to treason. Colonel Ai was

  the commanding officer of the planning division of the

  MCHTT, but he was such a junior officer that if he worked in

  Sun's office of the chief of staff, his day would be spent mostly

  making tea and emptying wastebaskets for all the middle- and

  upper-class flag officers there. If the Central Military Com-

  mittee wanted any changes made as to how Taiwan was to be

  11 reunited" with the mainland, the CMC would tell the chief

  of staff, who would tell Sun, who would tell the MCHTT to

  make the changes. That process might take six months-six

  months spent by each bureaucrat in order to make sure that

  his superior wasn't trying to screw him, each bureaucrat mak-

  ing sure that the orders made him look good if it worked and

  made someone else look bad if it didn't work.

  The initial thrust of the attack on the island of Formosa was

  to destroy the island's thick air and coastal security units from

  long range. Seven fixed bases and ten mobile presurveyed

  launch points in east-central China were programmed to launch

  up to twenty Dong Feng-15 intermediate- and short-range mis-

  siles each on Taiwanese targets per day, that was one hundred

  and fifty to three hundred missiles per day, an incredible bom-

  bardment. The attacks were programmed to last as long as a

  month, but of course would be halted right before the am-

  phibious invasion began, or upon the rebel's unconditional sur-

  render. The high-explosive missile attacks would be followed

  by tactical air strikes to mop up any surviving targets, escorted

  by waves of fighters to ensure air superiority and to fight off

  20 DALE BROWN

  an expected counterattack by Taiwanese air forces. An am-

  phibious invasion was deemed unnecessary-the thought be-

  ing that loyal Communists on Taiwan would rise up, throw off

  their Nationalist oppressors, and welcome the People's Lib-

  eration Army ashore peacefully-but the aircraft carrier Mao

  Zedong, formerly the Russian carrier Varyag and for a short

  time the Iranian carrier Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, and its

  battle group would be used to ferry troops and supplies ashore

  if necessary, while providing air cover against any resistance.

  "Hold please, Colonel," Sun finally said. "You show the

  employment of seventy-five DF- 15 missiles on Longtian to

  launch against Taoyuan and Hsinchu Air Bases on Taiwan."

  "Yes, sir ... ?"

  "Yet I was briefed two days ago that there has been exten-

  sive flooding on Longtian peninsula and that the base and city

  are not fully repaired," Sun went on angrily. "The undamaged

  missiles were removed and sent to Fuzhou. What forces are

  covering Longtian's targets while their missiles are evacu-

  ated?"

  Colonel Ai seemed stunned at Sun's question. "The evac-

  uation was merely precaut
ionary, sir," he responded. "We ex-

  pect the missiles to be back at their presurveyed launch points

  in just a few days. . . ."

  "But then you are in fact telling me that Taoyuan and Hsin-

  chu are not really at risk right now," Sun insisted. "You are

  saying-"

  "Comrade Admiral, Longtian covers the initial bombard-

  ment of Taoyuan and Hsinchu," General Lieutenant Qian said

  in a loud, irritated voice. "Colonel Ai, continue the briefing-"

  "But, sir, I just said there are no missiles at Longtian," Sun

  interrupted. Although Qian was senior to Sun, they were both

  of equal rank and authority, and it was certainly within Sun's

  purview to question anything in this briefing. He turned to

  Colonel Ai and asked, "Did you bother to move any bombers

  from the interior or from the north to cover those targets?

  Zeguo Air Base can perhaps handle twenty or thirty B-6 bomb-

  ers; Hangzhou and Fuzhou might be able to handle thirty each

  as well. One hundred bombers might be able to cover those

  two Nationalist cities until the DF-15s can be replaced at

  Longtian. You might be able to get a number of Q-5s to cover

  the targets, but it might take a hundred and fifty or, more,

  depending on the status of Taiwan's Tien Kung-2 antiaircraft

  FATAL TERRAIN 21

  missile deployment that was scheduled for this month at Hsin-

  chu. But the weather is getting a bit better, so the Q-5s might

  have a good chance." Sun paused, regarding Ai. He still

  looked absolutely petrified with confusion, his eyes shifting

  back and forth from Sun to Qian. "Are you getting any of

  this, Comrade Colonel?"

  "Yes, sir, " Ai said, his Adam's apple bobbing up and down as

  if he were choking on his own tongue. But a warning glare from

  General Qian got his attention, and he pressed on: "Ah ...

  yes, as I was saying, Longtian's DF- 15 missiles will destroy

  the air defense bases at Taoyuan and Hsinchu, with secondary

  targets at Taipei and Lung Tan available when intelligence

  reports the destruction of these two air

  facilities-"

  "Commde Colonel, are you listening to what I am saying?"