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“Yes, sir,” Lieutenant Colonel Nash Hartzell, the deputy wing commander, said. Hartzell wore command pilot’s wings, a product of over ten years flying transports all over the world, but the tall, bald, bespectacled officer’s real passion was computers. “Guahan Utility District says the fuel oil flow was briefly disrupted by a faulty valve, and once the vapor lock is clear power will be back on. Backup generators are working okay at the command post and security checkpoints.”

  “That’s a common problem here, Patrick,” Cutlass explained. “Power and water to the base is provided by the municipal utility district, just like basic phone service is provided by Guam Telephone. We have our own backup sources for essential areas, but this base is so large that we can’t build our own power plant.” He turned back to Hartzell. “So what’s going on, Nash?”

  “The Air Force detected a missile launch they suspect was a cruise missile from Hainan Island,” Hartzell said. “Several minutes later a Vietnamese frigate was hit by some unidentified weapon. PACOM thinks the launch from Hainan was a Chinese antiship cruise missile.”

  “Christ,” Cutlass exclaimed. “China really seems to be on the warpath these days. Any orders?”

  “Just a general alert and a change in Force Protection Condition to Charlie,” Hartzell said. Force Protection Condition dealt with the security level on the base; it usually was a response to terrorist threats, but it could be affected by any sort of disturbance or threat. Level “Charlie” was a heightened state of security against a nonspecific threat. “Outer security contractors are being augmented by our own security teams, and inner security has been upped.”

  Cutlass nodded and thought for a moment, then said, “I want to go to FPCON Charlie Plus,” he said. “We’ve got too many planes out here, and with China firing cruise missiles out of nowhere, we could be next. Restrict all personnel to the base and all flight crews to the flight line. Two forms of picture ID at the gates, search all vehicles, and full alert badge exchange for the flight line. I want all the flight crews, especially the civilians, briefed on the evacuation orbit areas and emergency deployment procedures to Tinian and Saipan.” The international airports on the other two major islands of the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands were used as alternate divert and emergency evacuation bases—the airstrips were too short to fly loaded bombers but were often used by fighters.

  “Yes, sir,” Hartzell said. “I have to run to issue the orders, sir—the power outage took out the phones too.” He hustled off, followed by the commander’s staff.

  “Things are getting dicey around here, sir,” Cutlass said to Patrick as they headed back to the maintenance hangar to debrief their training mission. “I have a feeling we’re going to be put on alert, including the Excaliburs.”

  “I hope you’re wrong, Cutlass,” Patrick said. “It all depends on what China says and does next. But I don’t think this is going to blow over any time soon.” He clapped Cutlass on the shoulder. “I hate to do this to you, Cutlass, but after I debrief, I’m heading back to the mainland to launch the last Excalibur. That should be rolling off the line any day. You got one ride under your belt, and you did very well, but I don’t know when the next checkout ride will be.”

  “That’s okay, sir,” Cutlass said. “I have a feeling I’ll be pretty busy on the ground. Things are stirring out there, sir, and I think we’re going to be in the middle of it . . . very, very soon. Got time to stay for the alert mission brief?”

  “Absolutely,” Patrick said.

  After Patrick and Cutlass finished their maintenance debrief, they went over to the command center briefing room. Lieutenant Colonel Nash Hartzell was onstage conducting the briefing, with a very large electronic monitor behind him. There were about fifty crewmembers in the room. Hartzell gave a time hack, then pressed a button that connected the briefing room’s monitor to the weather center, and they received a three-day weather briefing. The weather was virtually the same for all three days: warm and humid, with an almost 100 percent chance of thunderstorms in midafternoon. Typhoon season had ended a couple months earlier.

  Captain Alicia Spencer, the First Expeditionary Bomb Wing’s intelligence officer, took the stage after the weather briefing. “The regional situation is still tense, as I’m sure you’ve all seen on the news,” she began. “Martial law continues in China. Civil unrest is widespread now as is the brutal military crackdown. As a result of the unrest, imports and exports have decreased about twenty percent, and there are widespread shortages of many commodities. The Communist government could collapse at any time—in fact, it may already have collapsed.”

  Spencer changed the display to show China’s coastline, with several icons scattered along the entire length. “Because of the shortages and political instability, all of China’s ballistic missile submarines appear to be in port,” Spencer went on. “None have been detected in their normal patrol areas in the South or East China Sea or Yellow Sea. Same goes for China’s aircraft carriers: the Zhenyuan is in home port at Zhanjiang, the Zheng He is under way but near its home port of Zhongshan, and the helicopter carrier Tongyi is in its home port of Quanzhou and appears to be operational.

  “The most alarming movement we’ve seen in strategic weapons has been the movement of two Dong Feng-21D antiship ballistic missiles from their storage facilities near Guangzhou to new field garrison locations near Huizhou, about a hundred miles east,” Spencer went on. “The area from Guangzhou to the coast is heavily fortified with surface-to-air missiles, so it’s likely this will be a new deployment area for DF-21s. We believe the movement of these missiles is in response to the announced transit through the South China Sea of the Nimitz carrier strike group later this month.”

  “Not a very good time to be sailing through the South China Sea,” Tom Hoffman commented.

  “The United States wants the world to know that we’re not afraid of whatever is happening in China, and that we expect to freely navigate the world’s oceans despite the building tension,” Alicia said. “You can bet those crews will be on a hair’s trigger alert, but they’re going to do it. Obviously this ratchets up the tension even more.”

  “It’s coming up on reelection campaign season,” someone else commented. “President Phoenix wants to act tough for the voters, and to hell with the danger to our carriers.”

  “Okay, okay, enough of the politics,” Hartzell said. “Anything else, Alicia?”

  “Yes, sir. The last item is that the Russian aircraft carrier Putin along with eleven other escort and support ships has put in for what is being described as joint aircraft carrier flight training and underway replenishment training at Zhongshan with the Zheng He carrier battle group. They are expected to train closely together and explore interoperability with each other, including flight operations off each other’s decks, damage control exercises, joint underway replenishment, and so forth.” Alicia took a few questions, then turned the podium over to Hartzell.

  “Okay, guys and gals, here’s the big picture,” Hartzell said. “Task force call sign will be Leopard. Everyone keeps their squadron call signs. Communications plan has changed, so be sure to check the date-time group when you upload flight plans and data.

  “Obviously the area around Guangzhou, what used to be called Canton, is looking pretty busy these days,” Hartzell went on, “so that’s the focus of our alert missions. The XB-1’s primary responsibility is to take out the Chinese S-300 surface-to-air missile sites along the coast with AGM-158 cruise missiles, suppress any fighter coverage, and attack land and shipboard antiair radars with AGM-88 antiradar missiles. The B-2 and B-1B bombers will follow, head inland, and attack the DF-21D launch sites at Huizhou with AGM-158s and the DF-21D storage complex at Guangzhou. The B-52s’ primary target is the H-6 bomber base at Fushan with AGM-86Ds and -158s, the radar site and naval air base at Guangzhou, and the carrier Zheng He.”

  “How about the Putin carrier?” Lieutenant Colonel Bridget “Xena” Dutchman, the B-52H Stratofortress expeditionary bomb squadron c
ommander, asked. “Mind if we take a shot at it?”

  “I haven’t heard anyone say no, but let’s stick with the Chinese targets first, Xena,” Hartzell said. “Now, we can’t expect any land-attack Tomahawk cruise missile support for these missions for the time being. Japan has deployed the Tomahawk on its ships, but they’re too far away for our sortie. The Taiwanese and Filipino air forces are on high alert, so our route of flight avoids overflying those countries while ingressing—on the way out you can contact them and request overflight or even help with pursuers. Any questions?” There were none. “Okay, alert preflights, update the Mode Two codes and the new communications rundown, report any squawks to Maintenance, and I’ll see you at the DFAC for chow. Dismissed.”

  Patrick met up with the squadron commanders, Hartzell, and Cuthbert at the front of the briefing room. “That takes me back to my old days sitting alert in B-52Gs,” Patrick said. “I’m surprised the briefing isn’t classified top secret, Cutlass. You’re reporting the position of the Nimitz, position of submarines, communications plans, and readiness of allied air forces, and the room isn’t secure?”

  “No, because it’s not a real mission briefing, Patrick,” Cutlass said matter-of-factly.

  “Say what?”

  “It’s not a real mission, Patrick,” Cutlass explained. “You think PACOM is going to allow us to fly a bombing mission over China with a handful of bombers? No way. We give these briefings so the crews stay sharp in real-world procedures, especially handling live weapons. We’ve practiced alert responses before, but we’ve never launched with full weapon and fuel loads.”

  “What?”

  “The last thing PACAF wants is for us to crash a bomber with a full load of fuel and bombs, Patrick, especially one of the few remaining two-billion-dollar stealth bombers,” Cutlass said, surprised at Patrick’s disbelief. “The Continuous Bomber Presence is a show of force, sir, nothing more. We brief real-world stuff, but it’s all open-source unclassified material.”

  “So the DF-21 movement, the H-6 bombers, the Putin aircraft carrier . . . ?”

  “Read all that it in Aviation Week and Space Technology a couple issues ago,” Hartzell admitted. “The crews get a kick out of the realistic-sounding intelligence briefing, and Alicia does a good job putting it together. We’ll probably see something on TV about the Russian carrier soon.”

  “So the strike missions are . . . ?”

  “We don’t have any authority to launch and go anywhere, especially with loaded planes,” Cutlass said. The squadron commanders were starting to smile at Patrick’s stunned expression. “We have the crews build real missions, get intel, write up flight plans, and program all the stuff into the computers on the planes, but they’re not meant to be flown.”

  “So they’re not real targets?”

  “They look like real targets, and they probably are real, but they’re not assigned targets from Pacific Command or PACAF—the crews find them themselves,” Cutlass said. “They have to update them every week, but that’s all practice for mission planning and programming the strike computers.”

  “Pretty unbelievable,” Patrick murmured.

  “You didn’t think your Excaliburs were the only planes that weren’t allowed to launch with live weapons on board, did you?” Cutlass asked. “Sir, except for the air defense fighters, we’ve never launched with live weapons aboard! We’ve done exercises in various countries, but only with shapes or practice bombs, not the real thing. We’re not even allowed to drag our own weapons from stateside—they fly them out on airlifters.”

  The squadron commanders said their good-byes so they could proceed with preflighting their planes—Patrick could hear a few “Do you believe he thought all this was for real?” comments as they departed.

  “Jeez, General, you look disappointed,” Cutlass said in a low voice. “I’m very impressed by the Excaliburs and your crews, sir—they’re working very hard and are remarkably proficient, given how long they’ve been out of the cockpit. But they’re not going to see any real action. Heck, if things get any worse in China, they’ll probably yank us all out of here and send us home, not plan real-world missions. Sorry, sir.”

  OFFICE OF THE FOREIGN MINISTER, ZHONGNANHAI, BEIJING, CHINA

  A FEW DAYS LATER

  “Wanshàng hao. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen around the world,” the broadcast began in English. “I am Tang Ji, foreign minister of the government of the People’s Republic of China. Greetings to you all. With me is Colonel General Zu Kai, chief of the general staff of the People’s Liberation Army. We will give a short statement on behalf of President Zhou Qiang. It is the president’s most sincere desire to reduce recent military activities and rising tensions that have resulted in the unfortunate loss of life. The people and government of China want nothing more than peace, security, and prosperity for all.

  “As you may know, the People’s Republic of China has historical and legal rights to all the waters enclosed by the first island chain, which are all waters west of the Korean peninsula, the Ryukyu Islands to Taiwan, the western Philippine Islands, and north of Borneo to Vietnamese territorial waters,” Tang went on in very good English. “However, we realize that other nations ignore historical precedent and do not agree with this. In the interest of peace, China has not exerted its rights or prevented any foreign vessels from transiting the area and has preferred and sought peaceful negotiations to resolve our issues.

  “However, other nations have begun to take advantage of the peace and have sent military aircraft, survey vessels, and then warships into these waters. The survey vessels wish to extract oil and gas from territory belonging to China; and the warships likewise seek to take advantage of China’s neutral stance to increase their hostile presence and protect their illegal mining and drilling operations. China was forced to respond. China deeply regrets the accidental and unintentional downing of American search aircraft during a rescue mission, but it was a direct by-product of the increasing military activities taking place in the South Sea. China has no choice but to respond. General Zu will present China’s military response to this urgent security crisis.”

  General Zu and an interpreter stepped forward to the dais. “Good evening. I wish to inform you that the People’s Liberation Army Navy has instituted a defensive patrol regime within the first island chain, particularly of the southern South Sea, or as some of you refer to it the South China Sea. The Chinese aircraft carrier battle groups Zhenyuan and Zheng He have been dispatched and will conduct surface and air patrols of the area to identify and classify every vessel transiting this area. We will also be stepping up aerial and satellite patrols as well.

  “I must emphasize that this is not a cordon or blockade of the Nansha Dao, Xisha Dao, Taiwan, or the South Sea,” Zu said. “China will not impede or interfere with any peaceful movement through the area, including that of military vessels. However, for the safety of our personnel and to lower the risk of accidental conflict, we will institute strict policies regarding the actions of certain military vessels transiting the area.

  “With regards to aircraft carriers: all foreign aircraft carriers must block all but one of their aircraft launching catapults by the use of parked and chained aircraft while within the first island chain, which includes Nansha Dao and Xisha Dao, and within two hundred kilometers of Chinese aircraft carriers or the Chinese shore. We realize that many navies rely on patrol and supply aircraft, so we will not request any restrictions on the type of aircraft that may be launched or recovered, but in the interest of peace we request that only patrol aircraft launch while in the area. This may seem like a drastic request, but many nations require similar restrictions while transiting their territorial waters, and for the first time China will now institute this requirement for a limited time only. Monitoring compliance of this request will be made by patrol boats, satellite, and patrol aircraft. We place no restrictions on carriers that use the so-called ski-jump launching method. Warships of the People’s Liberation Army Na
vy will also conform to this limitation when farther than two hundred kilometers from land.

  “With regard to subsurface vessels: they represent the greatest danger to peace and security in the region. Therefore, China will consider any submerged submarine detected within the first island chain as hostile, and will act accordingly. China likewise will not sail any submarine submerged through this area.”

  Zu abruptly stepped away from the dais, and Foreign Minister Tang took his place. “These may seem like unreasonable and even belligerent demands, ladies and gentlemen, but I assure you, our goal is to reduce tensions in the area and restore lasting peace as quickly as possible,” he said. “President Zhou, the Politburo, the general staff, and the good people of China seek nothing else. We humbly welcome and solicit your cooperation during this difficult time. Xièxiè. Thank you.” Tang bowed, turned with his eyes averted, and left the dais.

  THE WHITE HOUSE OVAL OFFICE, WASHINGTON, D.C.

  THAT SAME TIME

  “Why, Zhou and Zu have got to be smoking some wacky terbacky,” Vice President Ann Page said with a laugh. “Are they kidding? No submarines in the South China Sea? One usable catapult on our aircraft carriers? Are they serious?” Along with the president and vice president in the Oval Office were Secretary of State Herbert Kevich, National Security Adviser William Glenbrook, Secretary of Defense Fredrick Hayes, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Timothy Spellings. Ann turned to Kevich. “And where is President Zhou, Herbert? No one has seen him in quite some time. Who’s in charge out there?”

  “The real question is, Ann: What can they do to enforce these restrictions?” President Ken Phoenix asked. “General Spellings, what’s China got out there that could threaten us if they decide to carry through with these restrictions?”

  “A lot, and growing every day, sir,” Spellings said. He read from his secure tablet computer: “As Zu mentioned, they have two carrier battle groups deployed right now. One, the Zhenyuan, is a ski-jump carrier, but it carries several advanced aircraft, although not with the same heavier loads as American carriers can carry. The Zheng He is a different matter: it’s a slant-deck carrier with steam catapults, very much like a Nimitz-class carrier except a bit smaller, and it can carry more aircraft with heavier payloads. They have an amphibious assault aircraft carrier, the Tongyi, which is based in the East China Sea and is expected to lead any operations against Taiwan or the Paracel Islands, but it could be swung into action farther south. It is another ski-jump carrier, but it carries mostly helicopters and amphibious assault craft, plus about five hundred Chinese marines. All these battle groups are supported by at least ten vessels, including guided-missile cruisers, destroyers, frigates, replenishment vessels, and submarines. Most of these support vessels are modern ex-Russian ships or indigenously built and stack up well against our legacy ships. They should be activating a third aircraft carrier battle group soon. Bottom line: they definitely geared up to match whatever we can put into the South China Sea.