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  is off the flight line for a few months, so this'll work out perfectly.

  I've got a staff meeting with J. C. Powell and McDonnell-Douglas in

  about an hour, and I'll clear the desk and schedule an afternoon staff

  meeting on this project. We'll be back out here taking measurements"-he

  paused, then gave Ormack a sly smile-"right after we get back from

  lunch. Your treat, I believe?" THE GOLD ROOM OFFICE OF THE CHAIRMAN OF

  THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF THE PENTAGON, WASHINGTON, D.C. MONDAY, 15

  AUGUST 1994, 0800 HOURS LOCAL CC6ood morning, sir, " Navy Captain

  Rebecca Rodgers, senior staff officer, Pacific, of J-2, the Joint Chiefs

  of Staff Intelligence Directorate, began. "Captain Rodgers with this

  morning's intelligence report. The briefing is classified top secret,

  sensitive sources and methods involved, not releasable to foreign

  nationals; the room is secure." She paused to doublecheck that the

  thick mahogany double doors to the Pentagon's Joint Chiefs of Staff

  Conference Center, referred to as the "Tank" or the "Gold Room, " were

  closed and locked and that the red "Top Secret" lights were on. Rebecca

  "Becky" Rodgers could feel the tension of the men and women in the Tank

  that morning, and her news was not going to help to cheer them up one

  bit. Captain Rodgers was at the briefer's podium at the base of the

  Tank's large, triangle-shaped conference table where everyone could see

  her and the screen clearly. It was a most imposing and decidedly

  uncomfortable spot-seven of the most senior, most powerful military men

  on the planet watching her, waiting for her, no doubt evaluating her

  performance every moment. The first few sessions in this room had been

  devastating for her. But that was a half-dozen crises ago, and it

  seemed like old hat now. She didn't need the old trick of trying to

  imagine the Joint Chiefs naked to get through her nervousness-the fact

  that she knew something that these powerful men and women did not know

  was comfort enough. Present for the briefing was JCS Chairman General

  Wilbur Curtis; the Vice Chairman, Marine Corps General Mario Lanuza; the

  Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Randolph Cunningham; Commandant of the

  Marine Corps General Robert Peterson; Air Force Chief of Staff General

  William Falmouth; and Army Chief of Staff General John Bonneville, plus

  their aides and representatives from the other J-staff directorates.

  Curtis insisted on attendance by all Joint Staff members and

  directorates for these daily briefings-it was probably the only

  opportunity for the staff to get together as a team during their busy

  week. The Chairman sat at the blunted apex of the triangle, with seats

  available beside him at the head of the table for the Secretary of

  Defense and the President of the United States if they chose to attend,

  although in his two years of office, the President had never set foot in

  this place. The four-star Joint Staff members and their aides and

  staffers sat on the Chairman's left, the J-staff directorate

  representatives on the right, and guests and briefers at the base of the

  triangle near the back. Each seat had a small communications console

  and computer I TV monitor embedded in the table, which was fed from the

  giant Global Military Communications, Command, Control, and Intelligence

  Network operations center on another level of the Pentagon. The back

  wall of the Tank was a large rear-projection screen. Arranged above it

  was a series of red LED digital clocks with various times, and several

  members of the staff, by force of habit after long years aloft or at

  sea, gave themselves a time hack from those ultra-precise clocks every

  morning. "The number-one topic I have for you today is the Philippines

  and South China Sea incidents, " Rodgers said after concluding her

  routine force status briefings. "In response to the attack on an

  oil-exploration barge a few months ago in the neutral zone in the

  Spratly Island chain, both the Philippines and China have stepped up

  naval activity in the area. "Specifically, the Chinese have not added

  any new forces except for a few smaller shallow patrol boats. They have

  a very strong contingent there, including the destroyer Hong Lung, which

  carries the Hong Qian-9 1 surface-to-air missile system, the Fei Lung-7

  and Fei Lung-9 antiship missile systems, and a good complement of

  dual-purpose guns. Additionally, they have two frigates, four patrol

  boats, some minesweepers, and other support vessels. They usually

  detach into three smaller patrol groups, with a missile craft leading

  two groups and Hong Lung and its escorts comprising the third. Vessels

  from the South Sea fleet, headquartered at Jhanjiang, rotate with the

  ships about once per month; however, Hong Lung rotates very seldom.

  Their base on Spratly Island is very small, but they can land

  medium-size cargo aircraft there to resupply their vessels. "The

  Filipinos have substantially increased their presence in the Spratly

  Islands following the attack on the oil barge. They have sent two of

  their three frigates into the disputed area and are now patrolling their

  section vigorously with both sea and air assets. "But despite the naval

  buildup, the Philippine naval fleet is practically nonexistent, "

  Rodgers concluded. "All of their major combatants are old, slow, and

  unreliable. The crews are generally not well trained and rarely operate

  more than a day's cruise away from their home ports."

  "So without the United States forces to back them up, they're sitting

  ducks for the Chinese, " Admiral Cunningham said. "Sir, the Chinese

  fleet is not that much more advanced than the Philippine fleet, at least

  the vessels that operate near the Spratly Islands, " Rodgers said. "Most

  are small, lightly armed patrol boats. The exception, of course, is the

  flagship, Hong Lung. It is without question the most capable warship in

  the entire South China Sea, comparable in performance to U.S. Kidd-class

  destroyers but faster and lighter. The frigates are heavily armed as

  well; most have HQ-6 1 SAM missiles, which would be very effective

  against the Filipino helicopters and may even be capable against the Sea

  Ray antiship missile. All are comparable in performance to U.S. Oliver

  Hazard Perryclass frigates, except without helicopter decks or the

  sophisticated electronics. "The main Chinese offensive thrust would

  obviously be their overwhelming ground forces-they could land several

  hundred thousand troops in the Philippines in very short order, "

  Rodgers concluded. "Although we generally classify the Chinese Navy as

  smaller and less capable than ours, their naval forces are very capable

  of supporting and protecting their ground troops. An amphibious assault

  on the Philippines by the Chinese would be concluded very quickly, and

  it would push the necessary threshold of an American counter strike to

  very high levels-very much along the lines of our DESERT SHIELD

  deployment, although without the advantage of forward basing."

  "So if the Chinese want to take the Spratly Islands, there's not much we

  could do about it, " General Falmouth summarized. "Sir, at
the current

  force levels in the area, if the Chinese wanted to take the Philippines,

  there would be little we could do about it..." There was a very animated

  murmur of voices at that comment. Curtis was the first to raise his

  voice above the others: "Wait one, Captain. Is this a J-2 assessment or

  an opinion?"

  "It is not a directorate finding, sir, but it is nevertheless a

  statement of fact, " Rodgers replied. "If they so decided, it would

  take the People's Liberation Army Navy less than a week..."

  "Ridiculous..." "They wouldn't dare..." "Absurd..." "According to the

  directorate's preliminary report, sir, " Rodgers explained, getting

  their attention, "if the Chinese captured five strategic military

  bases-the naval facilities at Subic Bay and Zamboanga, the Air Force

  bases at Cavite and Cebu, and the Army base at Cagayan de Oro-and if

  they defeated Second Vice President Samar's militia at Davao, they could

  secure the entire country." She paused, then looked directly at them.

  "Gentlemen, the New Philippine Army is nothing more than a well-equipped

  police force, not a defense force. They have relied on the United

  States for its national defense-and obviously would have to again, if

  the need arose. General Samar's Commonwealth Defense Force is a

  welltrained and well-organized guerrilla-fighting force, but they cannot

  stand up against a massive invasion. The Chinese have a thirty-to-one

  advantage in all areas. General Wilbur Curtis surveyed his Chiefs of

  Staff with a look of concern-the information Captain Rodgers had just

  conveyed had silenced them all. He had heard a lot of bad news during

  the past six years that he'd chaired the Joint Chiefs. He had learned to

  quickly decipher between isolated incidents and incidents that had a

  broader, far more serious impact if left untended. He knew the

  implications of what Rodgers was saying could be far more serious than

  any of them had previously thought. "I think we all wanted to believe

  this was just another skirmish. But with the United States out of the

  Philippines, there is a large power vacuum in the area. We knew there'd

  be that danger. Still, I don't think anyone believed the Chinese would

  consider moving so soon-if they really are." Curtis turned to Captain

  Rodgers again and asked, "Are the Chinese likely to attempt an

  invasion?"

  "Sir, if the Joint Chiefs would like a detailed briefing, I should get

  Central Intelligence involved, " Rodgers said. "I had been concentrating

  on the military aspects and hadn't prepared a full briefing on the

  political situation. But J-2 does feel that the Philippines are ripe

  for the picking." Curtis waited for additional thoughts from the Joint

  Chiefs; when there appeared to be no concrete suggestions, he said, "I'd

  like to review the current OPLANS for dealing with a possible Chinese

  action in the Philippines, then. I need to know what plans we have

  built already, and if they need to be updated. Captain Rodgers, I'd like

  Central Intelligence to get involved, and I'd like Current Operations to

  draft a response plan that I can present to the Secretary of Defense for

  his review. Include a Philippines update in the daily briefings,

  including satellite passes and a rundown on naval activity in the

  Spratlys and in the Chinese South China Sea fleet. Let's get on top of

  this thing and have a plan of action before it threatens to blow up in

  our faces." HIGH TECHNOLOGY AEROSPACE WEAPONS CENTER (HAWC) DREAMLAND,

  NEVADA WEDNESDAY, 17 AUGUST 1994, 0905 HOURS LOCAL The phone line

  crackled. "Brad! How the hell are you?" Lieutenant General Brad

  Elliott leaned back in his chair and smiled broadly as he recognized the

  caller. "I was expecting you to send young Andy Wyatt out here to

  harass me again, sir, but I'm glad to hear from you. "Can the 'sir'

  stuff with me, you old warhorse, " Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

  Wilbur Curtis said over the snaps and crackles in the scrambled phone

  line. "You know better. Besides, it's been a long time since we've

  spoken. When are we going to get together?"

  "I have a feeling it'll be soon, my friend. I've been getting calls

  from half the J-staff, a bunch of calls from Space Command-you had to be

  the next caller. Let me guess-you want some air time on some satellites

  of mine. "Now how the hell did you know that?"

  "Every time I build a new toy, you want it, that's how I know it."

  "That's why you're out there, you stupid bastard. You're supposed to be

  developing toys for us to play with, not polishing your three stars.

  Stop whining."

  "I'm not, believe me." Elliott chuckled. "I assume you want to use the

  new Masters NIRTSats, the ones that can downlink radar, infrared, and

  visual imagery all in one pass in real-time both to the ground stations

  and aircraft. Right?" "You're not telepathic are you?" Curtis joked.

  "They tell me you can receive satellite images on your B-2 bomber as

  well as your B-52 Megafortress?"

  "We flight-test PACER SKY at the Strategic Warfare Center in a couple

  weeks, " Elliott said, "but ground tests have gone really well. Let me

  guess some more: you want pictures of a certain area, but don't want to

  use DSP or LACROSSE satellites because you don't want certain Superpower

  countries to know you're interested. Am I close?" "Frightfully close, "

  Curtis said. "We're watching a Chinese naval buildup in the South China

  Sea. We think they might be getting ready to plug away at either the

  Spratlys or the Philippines. If we send a DSP or KH-series bird over

  the area, we risk discovery."

  "The Philippines? You mean the Chinese might try an invasion?"

  "Well, let's hope not, " Curtis said. "The President is a big fan of

  President Mikaso's. We've been expecting something like this for years,

  ever since we realized there was a good possibility we were going to get

  kicked out of the Philippines-now it might actually happen. We've got

  our pants pretty much down around the ankles as far as Southeast Asia

  goes right now. What with the buildup in the Persian Gulf and the

  closing of a bunch of bases overseas, we've got zilch out there...

  "Well, if you need the pictures, you got 'em, " Elliott said, running

  his hand across the top of his hair. "We can transmit the digitized

  data to J-2, or Jon Masters can set up one of his terminals right on

  your desk there-providing you don't keep stretching your secretary out

  over it all the time."

  "My secretary is a fifty-year-old Marine Corps gunnery sergeant that

  could grind us both down into little nubs, you old lech." Curtis

  laughed. "No, transmit it to J-2 and J-3 out here at the Pentagon

  soonest. They'll give you a call and tell you exactly what they want. "I

  know what you want, sir, " Elliott said. "Hey, don't be so sure, big

  shot, " Curtis said. "Man, some guys-they get on the fast track, tool

  around the White House for a few months, and it goes right to their

  heads. And stop calling me sir. You'd have four stars, too, if you'd

  climb up out of that black hole you've built for yourself out there and

  join the real worl
d again."

  "What? Leave Dreamland and miss the opportunity for some first-class,

  four-star abuse? No way." Elliott gave his old friend a loud laugh and

  hung up. U.S. AIR FORCE STRATEGIC WARFARE CENTER ELLSWORTH AFB, SOUTH

  DAKOTA "Room, ten-HUT!" Two hundred men and women in olive drab flight

  suits moved smartly to their feet as Air Force Brigadier General Calvin

  Jarrel and his staff entered the auditorium briefing room. The scene

  could have been right out of Patton except for the ten-foot-square

  electronic liquid-crystal screen onstage with the Strategic Air Command

  emblem in full color, showing an armored fist clutching an olive branch

  and three lightning bolts. Otherwise it looked like the setting for

  countless other combat-mission briefings from years past-except these

  men and women, all SAC warriors, weren't going to war... at least not

  yet. It was easy to mistake General Cal Jarrel for just another one of

  the four hundred or so crew dogs at the Air Force Strategic Warfare

  Center, and that was just fine with him. Jarrel was an unimposing five

  foot eleven, one-hundred-sixty-pound man, with boyish brown hair and

  brown eyes hidden behind standard-issue aluminum-framed aviator's

  spectacles. Many of those close to the General thought that he was

  uncomfortable with the trappings of a general officer, and everyone on

  the base agreed that at the very least he was the most visible one-star

  anyone had ever known. On the flight line or on the indoor track in the

  base gym, he could be seen jogging early each morning with a crowd of

  several dozen staffers and visitors, which was how he kept his slight

  frame lean and trim despite an ever-increasing amount of time flying a

  desk instead of a B-52 Stratofortress, B-1B Excalibur, or F-1 11 G Super

  'Vark bomber. He was married to an environmental-law attorney from

  Georgia and was the harried father of two teenage boys. Like many of the

  men and women in the Strategic Air Command of the mid-1990s, Jarrel

  appeared studious, introspective, unobtrusive, and soft-spoken-unlike

  their hotshot fighter-pilot colleagues, it was as if they understood

  that the awesome responsibility of carrying two-thirds of the nation's